Oil depletion and transition to renewable substitutes
The depletion of energy resources is a complex phenomenon. Depletion is not a process of simply "running out" of a resource, but instead is a complex process of technological change and adaptation. This adaptation can leads to development of new resources, which are often lower quality, more costly to process, or more difficult to access (e.g. deepwater oil resources, shale oil, or bitumen). We attempt to understand depletion within this broad context of technical change and adaption, and to understand the impacts of these shifts on the environment.
Net energy returns of resource extraction
Recent work has focused on the role of energy efficiency in resource depletion and resource transitions. Many problems associated with resource depletion can be understood as arising from the increasing energy intensity of extraction as a resource becomes increasingly depleted. Metrics such as energy return on investment (EROI) aim to shed light on this effect. We have examined this energy efficiency effect in resources such as conventional oil, heavy oil, and the oil sands. We have also explored the energetics of unconventional oil alternatives, such as oil shale.
Oil depletion and oil transitions
A research interest of the EAO group involves exploring the mathematical tools used to model oil depletion at large scales. This interest has also lead to work on optimization modeling of the transition to substitutes for conventional oil in the face of resource depletion. These tools will help us understand which oil substitutes might be used in the future, how quickly and extensively we might need to develop them, and what their impacts could be (both environmental and economic).
In oil depletion analysis, it is commonly assumed that conventional oil demand will continue to increase beyond the stage at which production must decline and fall due to geological constraints. In this analysis, we attempt to understand whether another possibility might occur: might demand for conventional oil decline before geologic constraints become binding? This might occur due to efficiency improvements, saturation for travel demand in wealthy countries, substitution with alternative non-liquid energy carriers such as electricity or natural gas, or substitution with unconventional liquid fuels such as oil sands, synthetic fuels, and biofuels.
In order to support this analysis, we have developed the Interactive petroleum Demand EStimation (IDES) model. IDES allows any user to download the analysis tool used in this paper and to adjust model settings in line with their beliefs about future rates of technology adoption, demand increases, and economic growth.
Publications
2018
Brandt, A.R., M.S. Masnadi, J.G. Englander, J.G. Koomey, D. Gordon. Climate-wise oil choices in a world of oil abundance. Environmental Research Letters DOI: 10.1088/1748- 9326/aaae76
2017
Brandt, A.R. How does energy resource depletion affect prosperity? Mathematics of a minimum energy return on investment (EROI). Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality. DOI: 10.1007/s41247-017-0019-y
Clack, C.T. M, Qvist, S. A., Apt, J., Bazilian, M., Brandt, A. R., Caldeira, K., Davis, S. J., Diakov, V., Handschy, M. A., Hines, P. D. H., Jaramillo, P., Kammen, D. M., Long, J. C. S., Morgan, M. G., Reed, A., Sivaram, V., Sweeney, J., Tynan, G. R., Victor, D. G., Weyant, J. P., Whitacre, J. F. Evaluation of a proposal for reliable low-cost grid power with 100% wind, water, and solar. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1610381114
*Kolster, C., M.S. Masnadi, S. Krevor, N. MacDowell, and A.R. Brandt. CO2 enhanced oil recovery: a catalyst for gigatonne-scale carbon capture and storage deployment? Energy & Environmental Science. DOI: 10.1039/c7ee02102j
Masnadi, M.S., Brandt, A.R. Energetic productivity dynamics of global super-giant oilfields. Energy & Environmental Science, 2017. DOI:10.1039/C7EE01031A
*Tripathi, V. and A.R. Brandt. Estimating Decades-Long Trends in Petroleum Field Energy Return on Investment (EROI) with an Engineering-Based Model. PLOS ONE. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0171083
2015
Brandt, A.R., Sun, Y., Bharadwaj, S., Livingston, D., Tan, E., Gordon, D. (2015) Energy return on investment (EROI) for forty global oilfields using a detailed engineering-based model of oil production. PLOSone. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0144141.
Brandt, A.R., Yeskoo, T.E., Vafi, K. (2015) Net energy analysis of Bakken crude oil production using a well-level engineering-based model. Energy. DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.10.113.
Englander, J.G., Brandt, A.R., Elgowainy, A., Cai, H., Han, J., Yeh, S., Wang, M.Q. (2015). Oil sands energy intensity assessment using facility-level data. Energy & Fuels. DOI: 10.1021/acs.energyfuels.5b00175
McNally, M.S., Brandt, A.R. (2015). The productivity and potential future recovery of the Bakken formation of North Dakota. Journal of Unconventional Oil and Gas Resources. DOI:10.1016/j.juogr.2015.04.002
2014
Carbajales-Dale, M., Barnhart, C.J., Brandt, A.R., Benson, S.M. (2014). A better currency for investing in a sustainable future. Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/nclimate2285
2013
Brandt, A.R., Dale, M., Barnhart, C.J. (2013) Calculating systems-scale energy efficiency and energy returns: a bottom-up matrix-based approach. Energy. DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.09.054
Brandt, A.R., Millard-Ball, A., Ganser, M., Gorelick, S. (2013). Peak oil demand: The role of fuel efficiency and alternative fuels in a global oil production decline. Environmental Science & Technology. DOI: 10.1021/es401419t
Englander, J., Brandt, A.R., Bharadwaj, S. (2013). Historical trends in greenhouse gas emissions of the Alberta oil sands (1970-2010). Environmental Research Letters 8 (4), art. no. 044036,. DOI: 10.10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044036
Site content
- Saad, D, M Sodwatana, E Sherwin, and A Brandt. “Energy Storage in Combined Gas-Electric Energy Transitions Models: The Case of California”, Applied Energy, 385 (May 1, 2025): 125480. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125480.
- Aljubran, M, D Saad, M Sodwatana, A Brandt, and R Horne. “The Value of Enhanced Geothermal Systems for the Energy Transition in California”, Sustainable Energy & Fuels, February 3, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1039/D4SE01520G.
- Mukherjee, M, J Littlefield, H Khutal, K Kirchner-Ortiz, K Davis, L Jing, F Ramadan, H El-Houjeiri, M Masnadi, and A Brandt. “Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the US Liquefied Natural Gas Operations and Shipping through Process Model Based Life Cycle Assessment”, Communications Earth & Environment, 6, no. 1 (January 19, 2025): 16. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01988-2.
- Sodwatana, M, S Kazi, K Sundar, A Brandt, and A Zlotnik. “Locational Marginal Pricing of Energy in Pipeline Transport of Natural Gas and Hydrogen With Carbon Offset Incentives”, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 96 (December 27, 2024): 574-88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2024.11.191.
- Nie, Y, Q Paletta, A Scott, L Pomares, G Arbod, S Sgouridis, J Lasenby, and A Brandt. “Sky Image-Based Solar Forecasting Using Deep Learning With Heterogeneous Multi-Location Data: Dataset Fusion Versus Transfer Learning”, Applied Energy, 369 (September 1, 2024): 123467. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123467.
- Nie, Y, E Zelikman, A Scott, Q Paletta, and A Brandt. “SkyGPT: Probabilistic Ultra-Short-Term Solar Forecasting Using Synthetic Sky Images from Physics-Constrained VideoGPT”, Advances in Applied Energy, 14 (July 15, 2024): 100172. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2024.100172.
- Chen, Z, S El Abbadi, E Sherwin, P Burdeau, J Rutherford, Y Chen, Z Zhang, and A Brandt. “Comparing Continuous Methane Monitoring Technologies for High-Volume Emissions: A Single-Blind Controlled Release Study”, ACS ES&T Air, 1, no. 8 (June 4, 2024): 871-84. https://doi.org/10.1021/acsestair.4c00015.
- Negron, A, E Kort, G Plant, A Brandt, Y Chen, C Hausman, and M Smith. “Measurement-Based Carbon Intensity of US Offshore Oil and Gas Production”, Environmental Research Letters, 19, no. 6 (May 28, 2024): 064027. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad489d.
- El Abbadi, S, Z Chen, P Burdeau, J Rutherford, Y Chen, Z Zhang, E Sherwin, and A Brandt. “Technological Maturity of Aircraft-Based Methane Sensing for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation”, Environmental Science & Technology, 58, no. 22 (May 17, 2024). https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.4c02439.
- Sherwin, E, J Rutherford, Z Zhang, Y Chen, E Wetherley, P Yakovlev, E Berman, B Jones, D Cusworth, A Thorpe, A Ayasse, R Duren, and A Brandt. “US Oil and Gas System Emissions from Nearly One Million Aerial Site Measurements”, Nature, 627, no. 8003 (March 13, 2024): 328-34. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07117-5.
- Shin, L, A Brandt, D Iancu, K Mach, C Field, M-J Cho, M Ng, K Chey, N Ram, T Robinson, and B Reeves. “Climate Impacts of Digital Use Supply Chains”, Environmental Research: Climate, 3, no. 1 (March 5, 2024): 015009. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad22eb.
- Wang, J, B Barlow, W Funk, C Robinson, A Brandt, and A Ravikumar. “Large-Scale Controlled Experiment Demonstrates Effectiveness of Methane Leak Detection and Repair Programs at Oil and Gas Facilities”, Environmental Science & Technology, 58, no. 7 (February 5, 2024). https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.3c09147.
- Nie, Y, X Li, Q Paletta, M Aragon, A Scott, and A Brandt. “Open-Source Sky Image Datasets for Solar Forecasting With Deep Learning: A Comprehensive Survey”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 189 (January 15, 2024): 113977. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.113977.
- Sherwin, Evan, Jeffrey Rutherford, Yuanlei Chen, Sam Aminfard, Eric Kort, Robert Jackson, and Adam Brandt. “Single-Blind Validation of Space-Based Point-Source Detection and Quantification of Onshore Methane Emissions”, Scientific Reports, 13 (March 7, 2023): 3836. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30761-2.
- Jing, Liang, Hassan El-Houjeiri, Jean-Christophe Monfort, James Littlefield, Amjaad Al-Qahtani, Yash Dixit, Raymond Speth, Adam Brandt, Mohammad Masnadi, Heather MacLean, William Peltier, Deborah Gordon, and Joule Bergerson. “Understanding Variability in Petroleum Jet Fuel Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions to Inform Aviation Decarbonization”, Nature Communications, 13, no. 1 (December 21, 2022): 7853. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-35392-1.
- Zhang, Zhan, Evan Sherwin, Daniel Varon, and Adam Brandt. “Detecting and Quantifying Methane Emissions from Oil and Gas Production: Algorithm Development With Ground-Truth Calibration Based on Sentinel-2 Satellite Imagery”, Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 15, no. 23 (December 13, 2022): 7155-69. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-7155-2022.
- Sherwin, Evand, Ernest Lever, and Adam Brandt. “Low-Cost Representative Sampling for a Natural Gas Distribution System in Transition”, ACS Omega, 7, no. 48 (November 23, 2022): 43973–43980. https://doi.org/10.1021/acsomega.2c05314.
- Yu, Jevan, Benjamin Hmiel, David Lyon, Jack Warren, Daniel Cusworth, Riley Duren, Yuanlei Chen, Erin Murphy, and Adam Brandt. “Methane Emissions from Natural Gas Gathering Pipelines in the Permian Basin”, Environmental Science & Technology Letters, 9, no. 11 (October 4, 2022): 969–974. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.2c00380.
- Kuepper, Lucas, Holger Teichgraeber, Nils Baumgärtner, André Bardow, and Adam Brandt. “Wind Data Introduce Error in Time-Series Reduction for Capacity Expansion Modelling”, Energy, 256 (October 1, 2022): 124467. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124467.
- Plant, Genevieve, Eric Kort, Adam Brandt, Yuanlei Chen, Graham Fordice, Alan Gorchov Negron, Stefan Schwietzke, Mackenzie Smith, and Daniel Zavala-Araiza. “Inefficient and Unlit Natural Gas Flares Both Emit Large Quantities of Methane”, Science, Report: Methane Emissions, 377, no. 6614 (September 29, 2022): 1566-71. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abq0385.