Blow wind blow: Capital deployment in variable energy systems

Abstract

Future energy systems will inevitably rely much more on variable renewable energy. This transition has implications for capital equipment in the energy gathering, processing, and end-use sectors. We define a “flexible energy strategy” (FES) as an energy capital investment and associated operating strategy that can increase usage of variable renewable energy. The literature on FES options is vast and many options have been explored, such as electrochemical storage, demand management, or flexible manufacturing. However, FESs have been difficult to compare to date because of large variation in the details of technology characteristics and possible operating strategies. We develop a purposely simplified framework for consistent inter-comparison of FESs that uses the levelized cost of peak energy (LCPE) – energy provided at times of high electricity prices. We show that various FESs which differ in many details can be represented at a more abstract level with a small number of common terms (e.g., $ per W). We develop analytical solutions for LCPE for four broad classes of FESs. We evaluate these equations for four template variability cycles with empirical FES data. Our simple framework recreates intuitive and oft-cited results from the literature (i.e., challenges of seasonal-scale variability) and points to concrete targets for energy storage technologies.